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Coronavirus: Which of the worst hit sectors are predicted to recover fastest in 2020?
As coronavirus continues to negatively impact many sectors in the UK, millions of jobs have been lost, which has led to billions of pounds being lost across several key industries. After identifying the UK industries which have experienced a dramatic decrease of profits in the past two months, our data analysts were interested in predicting which of the worst hit sectors are likely recover the fastest.
After investigating recent Google Trends data, we uncovered the following results:
When will key industries recover in the UK?
1. Motor Trades
After analysing the search term ‘car rental’, projections show that the sector most likely to have the fastest recovery is the motor trade!
Projections show that the lowest dip for the industry was at the start of April, and the graphic illustrates that it slowly begins to rise throughout the end of April and is set to be back on its feet by May 31st, 2020. Fortunately, the eased lockdown measures have played a huge part in the industry’s revival.
2. Education
Following motor trade is education. After analysing at the search term ‘maths tutor’, it can be revealed that it is predicted to recover by the 21st of June 2020 - their road to recovery is helped out by schools reopening and lockdown measures being eased, meaning more parents will be willing to hire a tutor following home-school. Although it has been difficult, the estimations show that there is a light at the end of the tunnel for those in this sector.
3. Beauty and Cosmetics
In third place is beauty and cosmetics. It is estimated that the beauty industry will be back to normal interest by the 28th of June 2020, following its significant decrease of interest in May it is calculated the industry will recuperate during summer. Although coronavirus has set them back, they are forecasted to be back on their feet very soon.
4. Leisure and Sport
The leisure and sport industry are estimated to recover by July 19th, 2020. This is not only helped by the nation’s hunger for fitness, but also eased lockdown measures. Their biggest decrease in interest was recorded in April, but only three months later they are set to be back on track.
5. Tourism
Tourism is a key sector that has been negatively affected by coronavirus, this has led to a dramatic decrease in interest, and therefore profits. Although they are not in last place, they are not projected to return to normal interest until September 10th, 2020. However, this only looks at accommodation, therefore the flights industry could have a potentially longer wait until things are back to normal.
6. Hospitality and Events
The hospitality and events industry are one that has been severely impacted by coronavirus for the worse. Out of Reboot’s list of the worst impacted industries, hospitality is the most negatively affected.
The projections show that this industry won’t be back to normal any time soon, with an estimated recovery date of September 25th, 2020. However, this could potentially go on for longer as although restaurants may be able to open, big events such as music festivals have been reported by the BBC as ‘difficult to imagine’ until 2021.
Unfortunately, this sector has a lot of work to do to get back on its feet. This is not only shown in Reboot’s forecasts, but through government legislations and reporting within the media. The closure of pubs, bars and restaurants are among some of the restrictions placed upon the industry, resulting in its halt of business.
Which industries have already recovered?
Interestingly, Reboot found that many sectors have already begun to recover – which is great news! Specifically, the housing industry. Searches for ‘houses for sale’ experienced a drastic fall on March 24th, however only a month and a half later it’s already back up to the same figures as 2019!
Similarly, parts of the motor trade industry have begun to take a positive turn, following the dip due to coronavirus. ‘Cars for sale’ saw a huge decrease in searches between April 12th and 13th 2020, but by May 7th the searches had picked up again to the same level as 2019.
If this was of interest, check out the strangest Google searches Brits are making in lockdown!
Methodology:
1. Reboot looked at each struggling sector in the UK (due to coronavirus), in order to find each sector’s most searched (and therefore most popular) term among Brits in Google and used that as a representative term for each sector, using google AdWords.
2. They then compared the rate of interest from January 1st, 2019 – Sept 27th, 2019 (September is the limit set by Google trends) and then from January 1st, 2020 – May 19th, 2020 for each key search term per sector.
3. Following this, Reboot predicted the fastest recovering sectors by comparing both the search terms across 2019 and 2020 to determine the final predicted recovery date.
4. To gain the most accurate forecast, we also analysed search query behaviour during previous pandemics such as SARS and Ebola, and used the behavioural data to help predict the current Google Trends trajectories.
